An analysis of social media captions from Brazil's two leading presidential contenders, two months before the elections, reveals what each candidate talks about most — and who gets more engagement.

Brazil's presidential race is also being fought on Instagram, particularly on the account of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the leading right-wing candidate and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

The data suggest that Flávio is leaning on the same strategy that helped propel his father's rise: taking aim at the Workers' Party (P.T.) and its leading figure, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), the current president of Brazil.

The senator and Lula lead polls simulating the presidential election, which is scheduled for October.

The Workers' Party (P.T), its supporters or its standard-bearer, Lula, came up more often than any mention of the Bolsonaro family itself — including his father.

Jair Bolsonaro is currently under house arrest after being sentenced in 2025 for attempting a coup following his 2022 election defeat to Lula.

Now, Flávio seeks to assume the role of standard-bearer for the right wing and the Liberal Party (P.L.).

Flavio's references to Lula or the Workers' Party supporters were almost always critical. "Telling the truth is a crime under Lula's government", read one caption from January 14.

Lula's account tells a different story. He rarely mentions his chief rival at all.

His captions dwell instead on social policies such as the public health system (SUS), the Prouni university scholarship program, and the Minha Casa Minha Vida housing initiative.

"A house is a nest. It's where people raise their children, where kids make friends for life. That's why I'm always so happy when we make deliveries like today's, through Minha Casa Minha Vida," Lula wrote in a caption on June 10.

The starkest gap in volume came in March, when Flávio published posts at a rate of roughly two and a half to one compared with Lula.

That is no coincidence. In the same month, the debate about Bolsonaro's being transferred from prison to house arrest on humanitarian grounds was in full swing, and Flávio made several posts on the matter.

“They are deliberately putting Bolsonaro’s life at risk. There is no longer any justification for failing to comply with the law and granting Bolsonaro humanitarian detention,” read one post.

At the end of March, Brazil's Supreme Court ended up granting the ex-president house arrest due to his recent health issues.

The two candidates also differ in the number of likes per post throughout the first months of the presidential election year. On average, Flávio's posts received higher engagement.

The volume of posts from both camps, and the polarization driving the online debate, is likely to intensify as October’s election approaches — particularly if polling simulations that show a second-round runoff between Lula and Flávio prove accurate.

Flávio Bolsonaro Mentions Lula and the Workers’ Party More Than His Own Father on Instagram